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Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components
Authors:Marta Marcos  Ben Marzeion  Sönke Dangendorf  Aimée B A Slangen  Hindumathi Palanisamy  Luciana Fenoglio-Marc
Institution:1.Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (UIB-CSIC),Mallorca,Spain;2.University of Bremen,Bremen,Germany;3.University of Siegen,Siegen,Germany;4.Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,Hobart,Australia;5.Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research,Utrecht University,Utrecht,The Netherlands;6.Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales,Toulouse,France;7.University of Bonn,Bonn,Germany
Abstract:In this paper we review and update detection and attribution studies in sea level and its major contributors during the past decades. Tide gauge records reveal that the observed twentieth-century global and regional sea level rise is out of the bounds of its natural variability, evidencing thus a human fingerprint in the reported trends. The signal varies regionally, and it partly depends on the magnitude of the background variability. The human fingerprint is also manifested in the contributors of sea level for which observations are available, namely ocean thermal expansion and glaciers’ mass loss, which dominated the global sea level rise over the twentieth century. Attribution studies provide evidence that the trends in both components are clearly dominated by anthropogenic forcing over the second half of the twentieth century. In the earlier decades, there is a lack of observations hampering an improved attribution of causes to the observed sea level rise. At certain locations along the coast, the human influence is exacerbated by local coastal activities that induce land subsidence and increase the risk of sea level-related hazards.
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