资阳地区夏季大风预报方法研究

本文利用资阳地区51个地面观测站风场资料和micaps的高空填图资料,分析了2011~2016年资阳地区夏季大风日的环流形势,归纳出了五种易于出现大风的环流型,同时发现不同类型下易出现的大风风向有所不同。本文还利用micaps的tlogp探空数据,分析了各对流参数与夏季资阳地区大风的相关性,以及它们在大风和无大风时次的值域分布特征,选取适当的对流参数和阈值,利用二元逻辑回归法,分别建立了6、7、8月大风预报方程。最后选取高低层温露差和假相当位温差为指标,进一步排除空报。2017年试预报结果表明,该方法对资阳地区夏季大风的12小时内短期预报具有一定的参考意义。

Research on Summer Strong Wind Forecast of Ziyang

Based on wind data in 51 weather stations of Ziyang,and high-altitude mapping materialsMICAPS data of MICAPS,the circulation characteristics of summer strong wind of Ziyang in 2011~2016 were discussed.Divided the circulation into 5 types,At the same time,it is found that the direction of strong wind is different under different types.By using the sounding data of MICAPS,analyzed the relevance between the each convective indexes and the summer strong wind of Ziyang in 2011~2016,as well as the range distribution features of each convective indexes under the strong wind and no strong wind condition.Firstly selected proper convective indexes and range,and built the strong wind predictive equation in June,July and August respectively through using the binary logistic regression,then selected the depression of the dew point as well as the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature difference at the high and low layer as the index so as to exclude the empty forecast.The forecast result tested in 2017 shows that this method has reference value for the forecast of summer strong wind within 12 hours in Ziyang.