日本福岛第一核电站核泄漏后放射性物质运动轨迹

日本北部近海于2011年3月11日发生里氏9.0级地震,导致福岛第一核电站发生一连串事故并引发了核泄漏。日前此次核事故级别由事发后定的5级提至7级(核事故最高级别),核泄漏后放射性物质的扩散与迁移是目前关于核事故研究的热点之一。利用HYSPLIT模型模拟核爆炸后空气中放射性物质的运动轨迹发现核大气颗粒物主要运移方向为东和东北方向,进入太平洋上空,甚至美国境内,亦有朝南转西南运移的轨迹与趋势,使得放射性物质进入中国上空。根据历史气象资料对接下来的5—8月份大气颗粒物的运动轨迹进行预测,分析结果显示放射性物质随后可能往北,东北和西部运移,由于风向,降雨和洋流等的影响,将会继续影响中国,运移到中国的携带放射性物质的大气颗粒物主要来自高空。

Trajectories of radioactive materials after the nuclear leakage in Fukushima Nuclear Power Station in Japan

Magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred in Coastal waters of northern Japan on March 11,2011,triggered a succession of disasters and led to nuclear leakage in Fukushima Nuclear Power Station.The level of this nuclear accident raised from 5 to 7(the highest level of nuclear accidents).The spread and migration of radioactive materials after the nuclear leakage is the focus and a hot spot in nuclear accidents.HYSPLIT model is used to simulate radioactive materials’ trajectories after the nuclear leakage.The results show that atmospheric particulates with radioactive materials mainly move to the east and northeast over the Pacific,and even enter the United States.Sometimes they represent southward and turn to southwest trajectories or movement tendencies making them to move into China.Radioactive materials’ trajectories in the next four months,May to August,are speculated by historical meteorological information,and air dispersion from Fukushima is mainly northward,northeast and west directions.Due to factors such as atmospheric turbulence,wind direction,rainfall,ocean current and so on,radioactive materials will still have influence in China.Atmospheric particulates with radioactive material into China mostly come from high altitude.