1961—2018年影响深圳市的台风特征分析

采用ArcGIS空间分析技术、信息扩散技术等方法,统计分析了1961—2018年影响深圳市的台风特征。结果显示,进入深圳市300 km缓冲区(以下简称缓冲区)的台风频数呈现出明显的下降趋势,概率分析表明深圳市易受强热带风暴及以上等级的台风的影响;深圳市年台风降水量及其占年总降水的比例均呈现出明显的下降趋势,而极大风速呈现出弱的下降趋势;三类登陆台风分析表明,在深圳西侧一带登陆的台风往往会给深圳带来较强的风雨影响,在深圳东侧一带登陆的台风可产生较持续的影响,从深圳以南登陆的台风对深圳市的影响总体上偏小。

Analysis on the Characteristics of Typhoon Affecting Shenzhen City From 1961 to 2018

By using ArcGIS spatial analysis technology and information diffusion technology,the characteristics of typhoons affecting Shenzhen from 1961 to 2018 are analyzed in this paper.The results suggest that the frequency of typhoons entering the 300 km buffer zone of Shenzhen shows an obvious downward trend,and the probability analysis shows that Shenzhen is vulnerable to severe tropical storms and higher magnitude of typhoons.The annual precipitation caused by typhoon and its proportion to the total annual precipitation in Shenzhen show an obvious downward trend,while the extreme wind speed shows a weak downward trend.The analysis of three types of landfall typhoons shows that typhoons landing on the west side of Shenzhen often have a strong wind and rain impact on Shenzhen,typhoons landing on the east side of Shenzhen can have a more sustainable impact,and typhoons landing from south of Shenzhen generally have a relative weak impact on Shenzhen.