长三角扩容背景下的浙江省发展潜力分析

城市综合发展潜力的定量测算,能够有效预见城市发展趋势,发现社会发展和基础设施中存在的短板,对城市的规划布局与决策制定具有借鉴意义。本文以浙江省为例,结合社会经济数据与夜光灯光数据,基于城市综合发展潜力评价指标体系,采用加权主成分TOPSIS模型,得到全省11市2000~2019年近20年来的城市发展潜力时空演变情况。研究结果表明:从时序变化来看,浙江各市的综合发展潜力排名均存在上下波动情况,其中杭州、宁波、衢州和丽水相对稳定,而温州和舟山的波动趋势较为明显;从空间演变上看,浙江各市综合发展潜力不平衡,整体上北强南弱,浙北的杭、甬作为引擎城市,带动舟山、嘉兴等市形成一体化发展,而以温州为代表的浙南5市发展潜力较差。根据研究结论,本文从外部的区域协作与内部的发展形态两方面对浙江发展提出相应政策建议,以期缩小各市发展差距,改变北强南弱的发展现状。

Analysis of development potential of Zhejiang province under the expansion background of Yangtze River delta region

The quantitative measurement of the urban comprehensive development potential can effectively predict the evolution trend of the city and find weaknesses in social development and infrastructure,which has reference significance for the planning layout and decision-making of cities.This study considered Zhejiang Province as an example,combined social and economic data and nighttime light data,used the weighted principal components TOPSIS model based on the evaluation index system of comprehensive urban development potential,and obtained the spatiotemporal evolution of urban development potential of 11 cities in the province over 20 years,2000–2019.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)From the perspective of changes in time series,the ranking of the comprehensive development potential of each city in Zhejiang province fluctuated,among which Hangzhou,Ningbo,Quzhou,and Lishui were relatively stable.However,Wenzhou and Zhoushan exhibited a more obvious fluctuation trend.(2)From the perspective of spatial evolution,the comprehensive development potential of each city in Zhejiang Province was unbalanced.Overall,the comprehensive development potential was strong in the north but weak in the south.Hangzhou and Ningbo in northern Zhejiang drove the integrated development of Zhoushan,Jiaxing,and other cities,while the five cities in southern Zhejiang represented by Wenzhou had poor development potential.According to the research conclusions,this study presented corresponding suggestions for the development of Zhejiang from external regional cooperation and internal development patterns.The purpose of these two suggestions was to narrow the development gap of each city and change the strong and weak development trend in the north and south,respectively.