长三角地区人口城镇化空间差异及其影响因素研究

以长江三角洲41个城市市域为研究单元,基于2017年统计年鉴数据,构建影响因子体系,利用探索性空间数据分析和GWR模型,定量研究长三角市域人口城镇化空间差异、影响因子及其异质性作用。结果显示:长三角市域人口城镇化水平发展不平衡,存在明显的空间分异特征,呈现出以上海市为核心的梯度集聚分布;经济发展活力、投资强度、第一产业发展水平、医疗资源对于各市人口城镇化起着异质性作用,其中经济因子占主导作用、医疗资源因子的异质性作用显著。据此从推进一体化、高质量发展角度,为长三角人口城镇化协调发展提出建议。

Spatial difference between population urbanization and its influencing factors in Yangtze River delta

This study used 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta as the basic unit.The influencing factors were established based on statistical data from 2017.Subsequently,we analyzed quantitatively the spatial differences,the influencing factors and their heterogeneity to population urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta by using exploratory spatial data analysis and geographically weighted regression.The results showed that the distribution of population urbanization level in the Yangtze River Delta was unbalanced with an obvious spatial change trend,and it presented a gradient agglomeration around Shanghai.Meanwhile,economic development vitality,investment intensity,development level of primary industry,and medical resources played a heterogeneous role in the population urbanization of each city,among which economic factors played a leading role,while medical resource factors had a more prominent heterogeneous influence.Finally,some corresponding policy suggestions were presented for the coordinated development of population urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of integration and high-quality development.