On the possible hazard on the major cities caused by asteroid impact in the Pacific ocean |
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Authors: | S Yabushita N Hatta |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Applied Mathematics & Physics and Department of Mineral Science & Technology, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606, Japan |
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Abstract: | Semi-quantitative investigation is made of hazard expected from an asteroidal impact in the Pacific. An impact ofd (diameter) = 200 m asteroid has a probability of hitting somewhere in the Pacific once in 15000 y. By carrying out a Monte Carlo simulation, such an impact, on average, is shown to create a tsunami as high as 16, 14, 15, and 21 m at Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hawaii, respectively. Wooden houses, stone and brick houses, and reinforced concrete buildings are likely to be demolished by tsunamis of height 2, 7 and 20 m respectively. Thus, there is a probability of 1% or so that most of the artificial constructions on the coast lines of the Pacific be destroyed in the next century by an asteroidal impact. |
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