| “05.4.8”四川冰雹个例定量降水的预报技巧研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许建玉,钟青.“05.4.8”四川冰雹个例定量降水的预报技巧研究[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(2):161-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许建玉 钟青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理和强风暴实验室,北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049;中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉,430074
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理和强风暴实验室,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目 40775067 |
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| 摘 要： | 从集合预报的角度研究了"05.4.8"四川冰雹个例的定量降水的预报技巧随水平尺度以及地形的变化。初步结论为当水平尺度小于100km时,预报技巧随着水平尺度的增加而迅速增加,当水平尺度达到200km及以上时,预报技巧增加地非常缓慢,基本维持不变;在不同的地理位置,预报技巧的差别很大。总体而言,预报技巧在山地要较平原地区来得高。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报，定量降水，预报技巧，水平尺度，地形 |
A Study of the Forecasting Skill of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in a Hail Event in Sichuan Province on 8 April 2005 |
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| Xu Jianyu and Zhong Qing.A Study of the Forecasting Skill of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in a Hail Event in Sichuan Province on 8 April 2005[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(2):161-168. |
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| Authors: | Xu Jianyu and Zhong Qing |
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| Institution: | XU+Jianyu1,2,3+,+ZHONG+Qing1+1+Laboratory+of+Cloud-Precipitation+Physics+,+Severe+Storms,Institute+of+Atmospheric+Physics,Chinese+Academy+of+Sciences,Beijing+100029+2+Graduate+University+of+Chinese+Academy+of+Sciences,Beijing+100049+3+Institute+of+Heavy+Rain,China+Meteorological+Administration,Wuhan+430074 |
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| Abstract: | This study is concerned with the variation of the forecasting skill of the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) with the horizontal scale and topography in a hail event in Sichuan Province on 8 April 2005. The preliminary results show that when the horizontal scale is less than 100 km, the forecasting skill increases fastly with the horizontal scale. When the horizontal scale is equal to and greater than 200 km, the forecasting skill increases very slowly. At different locations, the forecasting skill ... |
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| Keywords: | ensemble prediction quantitative precipitation forecasting skill horizontal scale topography |
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