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| 导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 江志红,刘冬,刘渝,熊海星,鞠晓慧. 导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2010, 33(4): 385-394 |
| 作者姓名： | 江志红 刘冬 刘渝 熊海星 鞠晓慧 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏,南京,210044 2. 中国电力工程顾问集团西南电力设计院,四川,成都,610000 3. 国家气象信息中心,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 西南电力设计院委托项目"输电线路覆冰数学模型研究" |
| 摘 要： | 利用南方地区多个气象站和电力部门观冰站的导线覆冰逐日冰厚资料,将广义极值分布和广义帕雷托分布引入导线覆冰的概率模型研究中,通过超门限覆冰次数的泊松分布拟合检验,结合H ill图解,提出了基于超门限峰值法门限值的确定方法;对两种分布在导线覆冰极值模型拟合的适用性研究表明,广义帕雷托分布对各站覆冰冰厚极值的拟合精度最高;重现期冰厚极值估计随样本长度的变化分析表明,广义帕雷托分布模型极值估计的稳定性比广义极值分布强,一般样本容量达到25 a左右时,广义帕雷托分布重现期冰厚极值的估计趋于稳定,可以作为短序列下估计导线覆冰极值的较好方法。 |
| 关 键 词： | 广义极值分布模型 广义帕雷托分布模型 导线覆冰 重现期 |
Study on the Probability Distribution Simulation of Conductor Icing and Its Application Test |
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| JIANG Zhi-hong,LIU Dong,LIU Yu,XIONG Hai-xing,JU Xiao-hui. Study on the Probability Distribution Simulation of Conductor Icing and Its Application Test[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2010, 33(4): 385-394 | |
| Authors: | JIANG Zhi-hong LIU Dong LIU Yu XIONG Hai-xing JU Xiao-hui |
| Affiliation: | JIANG Zhi-hong1,LIU Dong1,LIU Yu2,XIONG Hai-xing2,JU Xiao-hui3(1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China,2.CPECC Southwest Electric Power Design Institute,Chengdu 610000,3.National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China) |
| Abstract: | The generalized extreme value distribution(GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) are used to study the conductor icing probability model with the daily standard icing thickness data in the south of China.By the simulation test of Poisson distribution of the number of exceedance events and Hillplot,the method of identifying threshold is proposed based on Peaks Over Threshold(POT).Numerical simulations show that GPD shows the best accuracy in simulating extremes of each site.The change of icing thickn... |
| Keywords: | generalized extreme value distribution(GEV) generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) conductor icing return period |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |