对土地竞租曲线形态及其变化的再认识

随着全球变化研究的深入，土地利用变化及其效应日益受到重视。土地竞租曲线是土地利用变化经济分析的重要理论基础，完善和深化对土地竞租曲线形态及其变化的研究，有助于加深对土地利用变化内在机理的认识，为预测土地利用变化的趋势提供理论依据。本文分析了土地竞租曲线形态研究的两种基本模式，指出了当前研究中的问题。针对这些不足，文章力图将理论推导和数学推导这两种分析模式结合起来，从技术进步的角度对土地竞租曲线的形态及其变化进行解释，分析土地竞租曲线中关键参数的变化及其现实意义，以加深对土地利用变化的理解。通过分析，文章得出了以下结论：①O’Sullivan提出的灵活/不灵活经济人假说存在诸多不足，不宜用于解释土地竞租曲线的形态及其变化；②技术进步是影响土地竞租曲线形态变化的关键因素，是土地利用变化的关键驱动力；③土地集约度是土地利用变化的重要指示器。加深对土地利用集约度内涵及其影响的认识，对土地利用的空间规划与布局研究有重要意义。最后，文章对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望。

Some Recognitions for the Form and Changes of Land Bid-rent Curve

With the deepening of global change research, more attentions are paid to the land use change and its effects. The land bid-rent curve analysis is an important theoretical basis for economical analysis in land use change. Improving the research of land bid-rent curve's form and its changes will help us to deepen the cognition of inherent mechanism in land use change, and provide a theoretical basis for forecasting land use changes. This paper analyzed two kinds of basic patterns in land bid-rent curve research, and pointed out the problems that exist in the previous studies. This paper tried to combine the theoretical derivation pattern with the mathematical reasoning pattern to explain the form and changes of land bid-rent curve in terms of technical progress, and analyzed the changes and realistic significance of key parametric in land bid-rent curve to deepen the understanding of land use change. Through analysis, this paper elicited the following conclusions: (1) The hypothesis of flexible farmer/inflexible farmer that raised by O'Sullivan exists many insufficiencies, and is not proper to be used in explaining the form and changes of land bid-rent curve. (2) Technical progress is the key factor that affects the form change of land bid-rent curve, and is the pivotal driving force that affects land use change. (3) Land use intensity is an important indicator of land use change. Deepening the research of land use intensity is very important to advance the research of land use spatial planning. At last, this paper proposed some issues valuable to be studied in the future.