广西北部湾经济区旅游可持续发展评价

基于专家打分法与AHP法、多目标线性规划法获得指标体系的权重和评分值。构造了相对最大差异尺度和均衡度公式,界定了最优均衡度综合指标及其4种均衡状态、最优和非最优均衡趋向指标以及单项指标筛选标准,从而系统地改进了旅游可持续发展的评价分析方法;分析了北部湾经济区旅游可持续发展的地区差异以及影响因素,研究发现：1）北部湾经济区旅游地可持续发展能力整体不高且地区发展不平衡,南宁处于基本可持续发展阶段,其他地级市处于准备阶段;地级市之间、地区内部各要素之间的可持续发展优势差异明显。2）旅游可持续发展环境不足以及旅游业趋向过于均衡发展,促使当前与未来区域旅游发展协调处于初步可持续发展阶段,但是地区之间旅游发展环境差异小,区域旅游可持续发展潜力大。3）旅游发展规划作用明显,良好的旅游业发展现状是区域旅游发展趋向于可持续发展阶段的基础。最后从基础设施、旅游社会经济地位、旅游-经济-环境协调发展、城市旅游合作等方面提出了相应建议。

Evaluation of Sustainable Tourism in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi

With the index weight and comprehensive evaluation scores of Tourism Sustainable Development（ TSD） obtained through the methods of expert scoring,AHP and multi-objective planning,this study creates two Biggest Difference Scales formulas and a Balanced Degree formula,and defines the Optimal Balanced Degree of Comprehensive Index with its four kinds of states,the indexes of Optimal or Non-optimal Balanced Tendencies and a filter criterion in single index layer. We also analyze the regional differences with its influence factors. The results show that TSD level of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,as a whole,is not high,and its unbalance is obvious. Nanning is in the basic stage of TSD,other cities are in the preparatory stage. The advantages of developing elements of cities are significantly different. It is found that,because of insufficient developing environments,the coordination of current and future regional TSD is in the preliminary stage. TSD has small differences everregional scale,if with good situation of tourism development,regional tourism will move into sustainable development. Finally,we put forward some suggestions regarding infrastructure construction,social and economic status,coordinated developments among tourism,economy,environment and urban tourism cooperation.