IAP短期气候距平预测系统的定量评估及订正技术的改进研究

采用一套多指标的评估方法， 对中国科学院大气物理所研制的短期气候距平数值预测系统（ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ） 方案１ 的预测性能进行了定量的、系统的评估。评估表明： ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ 对中国汛期大尺度的、重大的降水异常预报较好； 在不同区域，ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ 的预测能力不同， 对中国东南区域显示出较高的预报准确度和可信度； 与单个预报相比， 集合预测水平稳定， 能提高总体预测水平。另外， 还对订正技术进行了改进研究， 距平百分率订正较距平订正效果为佳。

Quantitative Assessment and Improvement to Correction Technology on Prediction System of Shot-Term Climate Anomaly

Prediction capability of prediction system of short-term climate anomaly (IAP PSSCA) is quantitatively evaluated after a set of 13-year and 5-member ensemble experiments have been carried out. It is shown that IAP PSSCA demonstrates encouraged prediction capability of summer precipitation anomalies in China, especially for strong summer precipitation anomalies which caused climate disasters, such as serve drought or flood in East China. The predictive effects have apparent difference between regions, for example, Southeast China including the region of the Yangtze River and South China has the highest skill over the country. Ensemble prediction is essential for short-term climate prediction because ensemble prediction is more stable than single prediction. Furthermore, improvement to correction technology is also undertaken.