“一带一路”地区滑坡灾害风险评估

"一带一路"倡议是中国参与全球治理的重要切入点，对"一带一路"地区滑坡灾害风险评估与区划，可为沿线国家和地区的防灾减灾提供依据。首先，选取坡度和地形起伏度两个指标，提取研究区滑坡灾害安全区域。其次，采用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）确定滑坡灾害风险评估体系并计算各因子综合权重，基于滑坡灾害风险评估模型定量评估"一带一路"地区滑坡灾害危险性、损失和风险。最后，运用滑坡灾害点和近百年"一带一路"地区滑坡灾害致死人数和经济损失空间分布分别验证评估的滑坡灾害危险性和损失。结果表明：（1）滑坡灾害安全区域主要分布在平原、盆地和沙漠等地区，仅有4.7%（56个）的滑坡灾害点分布在安全区域内，提取结果较为合理。（2）"一带一路"地区容易诱发滑坡灾害的条件为坡度介于25°~45°之间，地形起伏度大于900 m，距河网的距离小于500 m，多年平均降雨量介于400~800 mm，地震密度3×10^-4~2×10^-3个·km^-2之间，工程地质岩组为中等硬质岩体、软质岩和土质岩体。非安全区域中，滑坡灾害以中、低危险性为主，危险性评估结果精度AUC值为0.823。（3）"一带一路"地区容易造成潜在损失的滑坡灾害承灾体条件为：人口密度为80~160人·km^-2，公路线密度为0.2~0.9 km·km^-2，夜间灯光指数为20~60。非安全区域中，滑坡灾害潜在损失普遍较低，损失区划结果与近百年滑坡灾害致死人数和经济损失空间分布具有很好的一致性。（4）"一带一路"非安全区域，滑坡灾害极低、低、中等、高和极高风险区面积所占比例分别为44.7%、25.5%、15.3%、10.3%、4.2%，以极低和低风险为主。

Risk assessment of landslides along the Silk Road Economic Belt

The "Belt and Road" Initiative is an open and inclusive international economic cooperation network with an expanding spatial scope that covers Asia,Europe,Africa,Oceania and other regions of the world.It involves more than half of the world's population and creates a great economic aggregation of 21×10¹² USD.However,countries on the "Belt and Road" located in the Mediterranean-Himalaya volcanic seismic belt and the volcanic seismic belt along the Pacific Rim suffer from strongest global movement and crustal activity.The natural environment in the region is very different considering the serious damage caused by landslide hazards.In addition,most of the countries and regions along the line are developing countries with weak abilities to resist disasters.Due to the serious threatens brought by frequent landslide disasters to the lives and property of local people,which does a great harm on restricting local social and economic development.Therefore,how to scientifically establish the disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism or system is a critical issue the region is facing that needs to be addressed.Based on this,taking the characteristics of landslide disaster,the distribution law and hazards inducing environment into account,this paper combines the slope and topographic relief to extract the safety area of the study.Based on the safety area,the FAHP is used to confirm the risk assessment model of the landslide risk and to calculate the comprehensive weight of each factor.The risk of landslide in the countries along "the Belt and Road" is quantitatively evaluated and the relevant data is verified.The results are expected to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of landslide disasters in countries and regions along the "Belt and Road".Firstly,the safety area is mainly located in the plain,basin and desert,etc.Only 4.7% (56) landslide fall within the safety area,which means the results are reasonable.Secondly,the conditions that are likely to induce landslides are:slopes between 25° and 45°,topographic relief more than 900 m,distance from the river less than 500 m,average annual rainfall between 400 mm and 800 mm,seismic density is 3×10^-4-2×10^-3 per km²,the engineering geology rock masses being medium hard rocks or soft rocks or soil mass.In the non-safe area,landslides are mainly at medium and low hazard levels (80.3%),and the very high,high hazard areas are mainly distributed among plateau,mountainous land and hills,in which the topographic relief and the density of the earthquake are larger and rocks are softer.The AUC value of hazard is 0.823.Thirdly,the conditions when the landslides are likely to create potential damage include the population density of 80~160 person per km²,road density of 0.2~0.9 km per km² and night light index of 20~60.In non-safe area,the potential damage of landslide disasters is generally lower.The high,very high damage areas are mainly distributed in China (Southeastern Hilly Region,Taiwan,Southwest Mountain Area,Qinba Mountain and Loess Plateau),north of Southeast Asia,South Asia,the northwest of West Asia,southwest of Europe and some countries in Africa where the population density is large,economic condition is well,and the highway facilities are well developed.The results of the damage assessment are consistent with the spatial distribution of economic loss and death toll caused by the landslide.Finally,in the non-safe area,the proportions are 44.7%,25.5%,15.3%,10.3% and 4.2% respectively for the five risk zones,namely the extremely low risk zone,low risk zone,medium risk zone,high risk zone and extremely high risk zone.Therefore,it is dominated by the extremely low risk zone and low risk zone (with a sum of 70.2%).In summary,the results of risk classification of landslide disaster evaluated in this paper are scientific and reasonable,which can provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of landslide disasters in countries and regions along the "Belt and Road".