1962-2016年阿勒泰地区风速变化分析

利用阿勒泰地区6个气象站点1962-2016年平均风速日值数据资料，采用滑动趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Molet小波分析、ArcGIS中插值等方法，研究近55 a来阿勒泰地区平均风速的变化趋势。分析表明：（1）阿勒泰地区风速整体呈显著下降趋势，平均以0.021 1 m·s^-1·a^-1的速率逐步降低，四个季节风速变化趋势与全年一致，其中，夏季下降最突出，递减率为-0.025 4 m·s^-1·a^-1。（2）平均风速空间分布差异明显，总体表现为自西向东逐渐降低。（3）Molet小波分析显示，全年及四个季节平均风速变化均存在25~28 a变化周期，春、夏、秋、冬季表现强弱不同，体现出季节性差异。（4）全区年平均风速于1990年发生突变，但不同季节突变年份存在较大差异，春季、夏季和秋季平均风速突变分别发生在1994年、1993年和1990年，而冬季发生在1983年。（5）城市化进程不是风速显著降低的关键原因，相对于城市化进程，大气环流的变化可能是引起阿勒泰地区风速降低的关键因素。

Wind speed change in Altay Prefecture from 1962 to 2016

Based on the daily data of the average wind speed from 6 meteorological stations in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang, China from 1962 to 2016, the change trend of average wind speed in the region in recent 55 years was studied by the means of sliding trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation detection, Molet wavelet analysis and interpolation in ArcGIS in the paper. The results indicated as follows:(1)The wind speed in Altay Prefecture showed a significant downward trend on the whole, it was gradually reduced with an average rate of 0.021 1 m·s^-1·a^-1, the change trend of wind speed in four seasons is consistent with that in a whole year. Among them, the summer decline was the most prominent, with the rate of -0.025 4 m·s^-1·a^-1.(2)There was an obvious difference in the spatial distribution of the average wind speed, and overall the average wind speed was gradually decreased from west to east.(3) The Molet wavelet analysis showed that the average wind speed changes in a whole year and in the four seasons all had 25-28 a change cycles. The values in spring, summer, autumn and winter were different from each other, showing seasonal differences.(4) The annual average wind speed in Altay Prefecture had a abrupt change in 1990, but there were great differences for the seasonal abrupt changes. The abrupt change of the average wind speed in spring, summer, autumn and winter occurred in 1994, 1993, 1990 and 1983 respectively.(5)The urbanization process is not the key reason for the significant decrease of the wind speed. Compared with the urbanization process, the change of atmospheric circulation may be the key factor causing the wind speed decrease in Altay Prefecture.