A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability |
| |
| Authors: | J Buma M Dehn |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Department of Physical Geography, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands Fax: +31-30-440604, NL;(2) Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, D-53115 Bonn, Germany, DE |
| |
| Abstract: | A major effect of man-induced climate change could be a generally higher frequency and magnitude of extreme climatological
events in Europe. Consequently, the frequency of rainfall-triggered landslides could increase. However, assessment of the
impact of climate change on landsliding is difficult, because on a regional scale, climate change will vary strongly, and
even the sign of change can be opposite. Furthermore, different types of landslides are triggered by different mechanisms.
A potential method for predicting climate change impact on landsliding is to link slope models to climate scenarios obtained
through downscaling General Circulation Models (GCM). Methodologies, possibilities and problems are discussed, as well as
some tentative results for a test site in South-East France.
Received: 25 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 |
| |
| Keywords: | Climate change Landsliding General circulation models Slope models Downscaling |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
