南海历史地理争端空间分布与关联性研究

南海占我国海洋国土的2/3，不仅是中国国家安全的天然屏障和重要的出海口与战略通道，而且是我国未来重要的能源接续区与资源基地、地缘政治经济问题的多发区。对南海争端发展态势进行空间分布与关联性GIS分析，是重要的辅助决策支持。结果表明：（1）文献研究和网络爬虫等方法可以快速有效地获取南海争端历史地理数据，GIS技术能够对南海争端历史地理数据进行时空变化的深入分析；（2）就争端事件的时间分布而言，事件数量随时间推进呈现显著增长，个别发生重大南海争端事件的年份出现突增的现象；（3）就争端事件的空间分布而言，与越南及菲律宾相关的南海争端事件尤甚，其他周边国家则相对较少，这主要源于越菲两国的战略利益与南海所在区域交叠，使得越菲不断挑起事端；（4）越南、菲律宾与马来西亚等国的利益诉求区主要位于南沙群岛，各国诉求区分布明确，局部交错。网络GIS技术丰富了历史地理研究的途径，为其提供了新的思路和方法。

Study on Spatial Distribution and Correlation of Historical Disputes in the South China Sea with GIS

The South China Sea accounts for two-thirds of ocean land in China. It is not only the natural barrier of China＆#39;s national security and important port and strategic channel, but also an area of the important energy, re-source base and the prevalent geopolitical economic problems in our country in the future. With network technol-ogy and GIS technology, this study focus on spatial distribution and correlation analysis of the development trend on disputes of the South China Sea for providing auxiliary decision support. Results show that： （1） the method of document research and web crawler can quickly and efficiently obtain geography data about historical disputes in the South China Sea. GIS can carry on the space-time changes to geographic data in depth; （2） In terms of the time distribution of data, disputes of the South China Sea present a significantly increase over time, and in individual years appear a spate of major of the South China Sea issue;（3） In terms of spatial distribution, disputes in the South China Sea about Vietnam and the Philippines are much more, while other neighboring coun-tries are relatively less;And （4） the claimed areas by countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia are mainly located in the Nansha Islands. They distributed clearly, and overlapped partially. This study also reveals the availability of the network technology and GIS technique, enriches the ways, and provides new ideas and methods for historical geography research. At present, the preliminary analysis of the historical disputes has been completed. In the next step of historical geography study, we will mainly focus on independent events in disputes of the South China Sea, from a deeper level to reveal the change situation of the geography of history events, in order to provide support for the decision involved in the South China Sea.