冬小麦赤霉病与北太平洋海温场的相关分析及其预报

本文用经验正交、函数展开的分析方法确定了太平津海面温度场中和江苏省淮河以南各地小麦赤霉病显著相关的海区。对于显著相关海区的海面温度应用主成份分析进行处理,得到了数量较少而又能代表该海区海温状况主要信息的新因子,从而建立了各地赤霉病的长期预报模式,进行预报,效果较好。

The correlation analysis and prediction of winter wheat gibbefellin with SST field of the North .Pacific

In this paper, ,the regions, over the North Pacific, whose SSTs are signifi-cantly correlated with the winter wheat gibberellin in partial Jiangsu Province, the areas south to the Huaihe River, are determined using expansion method of EOF. SSTs of the significantly correlative regions are transformed into a few new factors repressing the main information of all the SST by means of the analysis of Principle components. Based on those factors the long-range Prediction model are given and the Prediction are obtained.