均生函数预报模型的改进实验

为了提高对百色市主汛期月降雨量的预报准确率,基于均生函数预报方法,应用百色市1951—2006年6、7、8月份的月降雨资料,通过"短序列建模"和"残差订正"方法进行改进,得到原序列、短序列预报模型及其相应的残差订正预报模型。各改进模型均使预报精度和准确率得到了不同程度的提高,尤其是MGFAFMs模型的预报Ts比MGFFM模型提高了25%。研究结果表明:在月雨量预报业务实践中采取均生函数4模型集合预报方式将是一种很好的选择。

Experimental Investigation on the Improved Prediction Models with Average-Generation Functions

In order to increase the forecasting accuracy,techniques of short-series modeling and residual correction are improved and the prediction models of original series,short-series and corresponding residual correction are developed on the basis of prediction technique of averaged-generation functions.The used data are the precipitation data of Baishe City from June to August in 1951-2006.The results show that the forecasting accuracy and precise of these improved models have raise to some extent,especially the Ts of MGFAFM model is 25% higher than MGFFM.The operational use of a consensus forecast with four models to the monthly rainfall amount is a good choice.