权力、地缘环境与地缘位势评价——以中日钓鱼岛之争为例

权力是国际政治的一个永恒话题，然而，国际关系学对权力的研究缺乏空间维度。考虑空间距离、地缘环境（由地理环境、地缘关系和地缘结构3部分组成）等对权力的空间制约，权力在空间的不均衡分布就是地缘位势。据此理解，文章从权力的4个来源，即军事实力、经济实力、软实力和不平等相互依赖，并结合地理衰减原理构建了地缘位势评价方法。以中日钓鱼岛之争为例，定量评价了中日两国在钓鱼岛的地缘位势，结果表明：随着中国崛起，整体经济实力、军事实力和中日之间不平等相互依赖关系的转变，至2010年中国在钓鱼岛的地缘位势已经全面超越日本。这一评价结果既可以回应国人在钓鱼岛问题上的不同声音，同时也阐释了自2012年以来中国在钓鱼岛问题上积极的处理方式。

Power,Geo-Setting and Evaluation Method of Geo-Potential: A Case Study of the Dispute over China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands

Power is an eternal topic of international politics, is the root causes of conflict and cooperation. The Science of International Relations discusses the sources of state power embodied in realism and neo-liberal institutionalism. However, the study on power lacks spatial dimension. Considering the restriction of spatial distance and Geo-Setting (which is composed of geographical environment, Geo-Relationship and Geo-Structure) on the space of power, this paper regards Geo-Potential as the disequilibrium distribution of power in space. Combining the geographical attenuation theory, the paper constructs a Geo-Potential evaluation method from the four sources of power, which are military strength, economic strength, soft power and inequality interdependence. Taking the dispute about the Diaoyu Islands over China and Japan as an example, with the method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the Geo-Potential of the two nations. The results show that: with the rise of China and the transition of the overall economic strength, military strength, and unequal interdependence relationship between China and Japan, till 2010 China’s Geo-Potential on the Diaoyu Islands had surpassed Japan’s. The Geo-Potential change between China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands has three interrelated reasons: the first is China’s rapid economic development, the second is the obvious improvement of the military strength of China, and the third is the shift of the unequal interdependence between China and Japan. The results of this evaluation can respond to different voices in China on the Diaoyu Islands issue, and it also can explain the active and tough approach of China to deal with this issue since 2012.