北京市暴雨积涝风险等级预警方法及应用

使用2007—2010 年汛期(6—8 月)北京市200 多个自动气象站逐小时降雨量数据、北京市政府防汛抗旱指挥部办公室每日发布的汛情通报、北京市暴雨积涝综合风险区划指数以及降雨量短时临近预警产品，对北京市出现的积水个例与同期降水强度进行相关统计分析，找出道路积水临界预警指标；基于北京市暴雨积涝综合风险区划指数和道路积水临界预警指标，建立暴雨积涝风险等级预警模型，制作暴雨积涝风险等级预警服务产品，该产品经2011—2012 年汛期(6—8月)试用表明，道路积水临界预警指标和预警模型均具有一定的参考价值。

The early warning methods on risk degree of urban rainstorm flash flood and its application in Beijing

The hourly rainfall data of over 200 automatic weather stations in flood season (from June to August) during 2007-2010 in Beijing, the daily flood circulars released by the Flood Control Office of Beijing associated with the Drought Relief Headquarters, the synthetic risk regionalization indices of rainstorm flash flood in Beijing, and the early warning products of short-range and nowcasting rainfall were used to perform correlation analysis between waterlogging occurrence and precipitation intensity in the same period, and then to derive a critical early warning index of urban road waterlogging. Based on the synthetic risk regionalization index of rainstorm flash flood and the critical early warning index of urban road waterlogging, an early warning model on risk degree of rainstorm flash flood in Beijing had been established, and the early warning service products on risk degree of rainstorm flash flood were developed. Applying the products to the flood season during 2011-2012, it is shown that both the critical early warning index of urban road waterlogging and the early warning model have reasonable skills.