应用北太平洋表层水温及环流场进行海冰预报

渤海及黄海北部处在中纬度地带,每年冬季都有不同程度的结冰现象。以辽东湾结冰时间最长,全部结冰日数平均为100多天,约占全年的三分之一。从全海区看,建国后冰情较重的有1957、1968、1969、1977年的1、2月份,尤其是1969年,渤海海面发生了该海区历史上罕见的冰封,整个海面几乎全部被海冰所覆盖,严重阻碍了海上的航运交通及海上石油开采工作,从而给国民经济带来很大损失。

FORECASTING OF SEA-ICE REGIME BY USING THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

It was found that the sea-surface temperature and the characteristics of atmospheric circulations in preceding months are closely related to the temperatures and ice regime in winter months. This relationship was most strongly reflected over the strong ocean-current regions and over the regions with quasi-permanent atmospheric center actions.It has been also shown that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere is more pronounced over these regions.This relationship may offer a key for long-term forecasting of the sea ice regime in winter. In addition, because,there is an obvious instability the stabilities of the correlation coefficients were analysed. Considering that the formation of weather process may changes with the variations of time scale, predictions for longer and shorter time scales processes are considered separately So the conclusion,some results and tests of forecasting in recent years are given.