环境约束下中国工业化与城镇化的关系演变——效率分析视角

将工业化视为投入,城镇化视为产出,基于中国各省份2001~2012年的工业化、城镇化和污染物排放数据,测算了传统效率值、环境效率值及效率指数,据此分析各省份工业化与城镇化的关系及其演变。研究发现：全国总体层面的城镇化传统效率值和环境效率值均在下降。分地区来看,东部地区通过工业化来推进城镇化的实施空间有限,中部地区需要调整发展方式,西部地区尚有一定余地。在城镇化过程中,工业化存在前期“负向规律机制”和后期“正向反馈机制”两种作用。为实现城镇化低碳发展,需要转变工业和经济发展方式,改善对外贸易结构,同时提高环境污染治理投资效果。

Evolutional Relationship Between Industrialization and Urbanization Under Environmental Constraints in China: DEA Analysis Perspective

Industrialization is the main driving force of China's urbanization. With the development of China's economy, its role needs to be reexamined. In this article, we investigate the dynamic relationship between industrialization and urbanization at provincial level in China with DEA framework. Using data on Chinese provincial industrialization, urbanization and pollution in 2001-2012, based on the index models of Malmquist and Malquist-Luenberger, we calculate conventional and environmental efficiency valuesof industrialization and relevant efficiency change indexes. Further, we analysis the effects of major influencing factorson these indexes, including economic growth, industrial development, economic openness and environmental protection. We find that: firstly, from the whole point of view, conventional and environmental urbanization efficiency is decreasing with the development of economy and the deepening of industrialization. So, under the current situation, it is not advisable to promote urbanization by encouraging industrialization on a national level. Secondly, the urbanization policy depends on regional circumstances. Eastern region has limited capacity to promote urbanization by industrialization. It should seek driving forces for urbanization other than manufacturing industry, such as service industry. Central region should adjust their developing strategy. It should alter the extensive mode of development to the intensive, and reduce resource consumption in industrial production. Western region still has space to accommodate urbanization growth with the help of industrialization. It is still feasible to elevate urbanization level through the development of industrialization. Thirdly, the analysis of tobit panel data model indicates that there exist two mechanisms in the urbanization process. The first one may be called “negative effect mechanism” and the second one may be called “positive feedback mechanism”. In the earlier stage of industrialization, the negative effect mechanism plays the leading role and makes the urbanization efficiency decrease. In the later stage of industrialization, the positive feedback mechanism takes part in and makes the urbanization efficiency increase through stimulating the development of service industry. Since the function of negative effect mechanism is inevitable, it needs to play role of externalities produced by industrialization to maximize the urbanization outputlevel. Fourthly, to realize the low-carbon developmentof urbanization, provincial governmentshould shift the development way of industrialization and economy, change the composition of foreign trade, and improve the performance of investment on pollution regulation.