京津冀地区县域单元地质灾害风险评估

以京津冀地区为例,探索县域单元的地质灾害风险评估方法。通过测算地质灾害危险性与承灾体易损性,以定性综合评估的方式实现县域单元地质灾害风险评估。实际评估中,将承灾体易损性分为人口安全易损性与资产易损性,分别用因灾死亡人口比与因灾直接经济损失比加以表征;再以国土资源部2001-2015年地质灾害灾情数据为基础,参考1950-2000年灾情数据,提出人口安全易损性与资产易损性的分级标准,并在京津冀地区进行了评估。结果表明：研究区整体地质灾害风险低,204个评估单元中仅有6个为中风险区,包括河北省涞源县、涞水县、武安市、青龙满族自治县、北京石景山区、延庆区,其余198个为低风险区,与实际情况相符。此方法快捷简便、数据可连续获取,符合建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制要求。空间差异化评估结果可为主动防灾减灾、国土空间管理提供支撑。

Risk assessment of geological hazards for counties and districts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, this article puts forward a method of geological hazard risk assessment. By calculating the level of threat of geological hazards and vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies first, we evaluated the geological hazard risk of counties and districts by qualitative comprehensive assessment. Vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies is composed of population vulnerability and property vulnerability, which are represented by the rate of deaths and rate of direct economic loss caused by geological hazards. Combing with the data of geological disaster situation during 2001-2015 from the Ministry of Land and Resources and taking into account the 1950-2000 disaster data, we proposed the classification standards of population vulnerability and property vulnerability. These standards and calculation were applied in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The result shows that the overall geological hazard risk is low. Only six areas—Laiyuan, Laishui, Wuan, Qinglong Manchu Autonomous County, Shijingshan, and Yanqing—show medium risk among the total of 204 assessed county and district units. The rest of the counties and districts are in the low risk area, which is in agreement with the reality. The method proposed here is simple and easy to use, and data can be acquired continuously. The spatial difference assessment result can be used to support the disaster prevention and risk reduction efforts and spatial planning and management.