江苏省人口老龄化空间分异演变及影响因素

基于街镇尺度,运用2000和2010年全国人口普查资料,对江苏省人口老龄化空间分异演变特点及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：① 老龄化整体上呈现“E”字型分布格局;区域老龄化类型差异变化显著;“乡镇-街道逆二元结构”凸显。② 空间集聚效应进一步“强化”,空间总体变异程度增强,结构性因素是引起空间变异的主要原因,随机性因素影响程度在增强。③ 成长型、老年型初期与老年型中期、老年型后期、超老年型表现出相反的重心偏移轨迹,成长型、老年型中期、老年型后期在空间上出现扩散效应,老年型初期出现极化效应。形成机制主要缘于自然因素、经济因素和社会因素。

Spatial Variation of Population Aging and Associated Factors in Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu is the first province to enter the aging society, and aging system has become one of the important topics for scholars in various fields to explore the aging system in China. Based on township-scale data in the 2000 and 2010 censuses, this study analyzed the spatial variation characteristics of population aging. The results are as follows. Firstly, the population aging of Jiangsu Province was characterized by “E” shaped structure. In the 10 years, the elderly population in the north of Jiangsu was growing rapidly, aging phenomenon has become increasingly prominent, the population aging in the south of Jiangsu has slight change and grow slowly, in the middle of Jiangsu was growing at a high speed. The differences of regional aging types change significantly, south of Jiangsu change from the early stage of the elderly to the late stage of the elderly, the middle of Jiangsu change from the middle stage of the elderly to the super aging stage, the north of Jiangsu change from not aging to the middle stage of the elderly. “Township-Street” inverse dual structure become prominent, the level of street is lower than the level of township. Secondly, the effect of spatial agglomeration is further strengthened, spatial development is not balanced. Nantong is the hottest zone which expand to northwest, and the cold zone evolve toward to Southeast then meet in the Nanjing metropolitan area and Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou metropolitan area. The degree of spatial variation is enhanced. The structural factors are the main reasons of spatial variability. The random factors are enhanced. Thirdly, the not aging, early stage of the elderly showed the opposite of the center of gravity migration trajectory to the middle stage of the elderly, the late stage of the elderly. The not aging, middle stage of the elderly, late stage of the elderly have the diffusion phenomenon, the early stage of the elderly has the polarization phenomenon. The formation mechanism is mainly due to natural factors, economic factors and social factors.