长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因

利用区位基尼系数、空间自相关、相对发展率指数（NICH指数）以及空间面板数据模型等分析方法,以长江经济带沿线38个中心城市作为空间观测单元,结合专利授权量等相关数据,研究了创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因。结果表明：2000~2013年长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出在整体上逐年增长,地理集中度呈现波动下降趋势;长三角地区相对发展速度较快;创新产出的空间集聚程度表现出反“Z”字形的波动上升态势;创新产出的热点区域由长三角-成渝“双核心”空间结构发展成长三角“单极突出”空间格局,且长三角热点区域范围有所增长,冷点区域则分布在长江中游地带;技术溢出、政府行为、空间区位和金融支持均对长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出具有显著地正向影响,经济基础对下游城市具有促进作用。根据研究结论还提出了相应政策建议。

Temporal-Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Its Causes of Innovation Output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

With the methods of local Gini coefficient, spatial autoregression, NICH coefficient and panel data model, this study takes the 38 center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as spatial observing units to discuss the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output, measured by the number of patents authorization and other related data. The result indicates that from 2000 to 2013, the overall innovation output in the center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is increasing year by year, while the geographic concentration of it presents a fluctuated downward trend. The relative development rate of the Yangtze River Delta area is faster than others. The agglomeration degree of innovation output shows a shape of mirrored “Z” with a fluctuated upward trend. The hot spots regions of innovation output develop into a “monopolar-prominent” spatial pattern in the Yangtze River Delta area from a “dual-central” spatial structure in the Yangtze River Delta area and Chengdu-Chongqing area, and the scope of hot spots regions is extending. Besides, the cold spots regions are concentrated in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; Technology spillover, government actions, spatial proximity and financial supports can make significantly positive effects on the innovation output in the center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the economic foundation can promote the development of innovation output in downstream cities. According to the conclusions, this article also propounds some corresponding suggestions.