长江经济带人口流动对区域经济差异的影响

依据中国第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查的户籍人口和常住人口数据,借助泰尔指数、空间分析、回归建模等方法,分析长江经济带经济差异和人口流动的时空格局,探究人口流动对区域经济差异的影响。结果表明：① 基于户籍人口计算的经济总差异和分解差异均大于基于常住人口计算的差异,户籍口径差异随时间扩大,常住口径差异则随时间缩小;② 长江经济带县域经济差异格局在东、中、西地带呈现不同的中心—外围结构,东部以空间聚合的长三角经济发达县为面状核心区,具有都市连绵带特征,中部和西部则形成多个以中心城市为点状核心区的中心—外围结构;③ 人口流动对流入地和流出地经济增长的影响不同,2000年和2010年流动人口比率的提高均显著促进流入地的经济增长,但在2000年会相对减缓流出地的增长,2010年则相对缓慢地促进流出地的增长,县域经济差异不断扩大;④ 省域和地带因素会干扰人口流动对县域经济差异的解释,在控制了二者的影响之后,人口流动对县域经济差异的扩大程度明显减弱;⑤ 人口流动对区域经济差异的影响最为突出,其次是以工业化水平所体现的经济结构,人力资本、财政分权和区域战略的影响较小;对流出地而言,重视劳动力回流、推进人口家庭化迁移、加快工业化进程,是防止乃至缩小区域经济差异的政策关键。

Impact of population flow on regional economic disparities in the Yangtze River economic belt

With the implementation and deepening of household registration reform and liberalizing of factors flow under market economy system, the imbalance in regional development is becoming increasingly complex. Thus it is significant to conduct research on the impact of population flow on regional economic disparities. This paper selected the Yangtze River economic belt as a case study, and used population flow ratio (to divide the difference between resident population and registered population by resident population) to represent the migration size. Based on the county-level data of registered population and resident population in China's fourth, fifth and sixth censuses, we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of economic disparities and population flow, and explored population mobility effect on economic inequalities in the Yangtze River economic belt. With the Theil index, spatial analysis and regression modeling methods, the following conclusions could be drawn: (1) The economic disparities based on resident population were smaller than those besed on registered population. The former was shrinking with the elapse of time, while the latter was expanding. (2) The eastern zone showed the megalopolis characteristic and a center-periphery spatial economic structure, with the spatial aggregation of developed counties in the Yangtze River Delta as the planar core area, while there were several sub-center-periphery structures with center city as point core area in the central and western zones. (3) The impact of population flow on economic growth was significantly different between inflow and outflow counties. The increase of population flow rate promoted the economic growth of inflow areas remarkably in 2000 and 2010. While it retarded the economic growth of outflow areas in 2000, and enhanced it slowly in 2010. The county economic gaps in the Yangtze River economic belt was widening. (4) The impact of population flow on regional economy disparities was prominently weakened with the provincial and regional factors taken into account. (5) Population flow was the most prominent factor which affects the regional economic disparities, followed by economic structure embodied in the level of industrialization. The other factors were human capital, fiscal decentralization and regional strategy. Emphasizing labor return, promoting family migration and speeding up industrialization are key policies to prevent and even narrow the regional economic gaps in outflow areas.