长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素

利用探索性空间分析方法（ESDA）和迪氏分解模型（LMDI）研究长江经济带2002~2013年工业废水排放的时空格局演化和主要驱动因素。① 时空格局演化方面,时间上工业废水排放先上升后下降,在2005年达到峰值。空间上,排放量自上游向下游增加;高排放城市减少,中排放城市增多;工业废水排放自下游向中上游转移,并由大城市向中小城市扩散;呈现明显的空间集聚状态。② 驱动因素方面,经济发展效应和技术进步效应分别是工业废水排放增多和降低的主导因素;产业结构效应的影响取决于产业发展政策的调整;人口规模效应影响较小。

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Industrial Wastewater Discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

Using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI), this article analyzes the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2002 to 2013 and the main driving factors affecting industrial wastewater discharge. The study indicates that: 1) In terms of the evolution of temporal pattern, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone increased continuously from 2002 to 2005, reaching the peak in 2005, and then showed a downward trend. As for the evolution of spatial pattern, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone gradually expanded from the upper reaches of Yangtze River to its lower reaches from 2002 to 2013. Regarding the discharge pattern, the high-discharge cities decreased while the medium-discharge cities increased. As for the changing trend, the industrial wastewater discharge tended to transfer from the lower branches of the Yangtze River to the middle and upper reaches, and spread from large cities to small and medium-sized cities. During the study period, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone showed a significant spatial agglomeration. 2) In terms of the driving factors, the economic development effect and the technological development effect are the main factors which lead to the increase and decrease of industrial wastewater discharge respectively. The effect of industrial structure is significant to the industrial wastewater discharge and it leads to the increase or decrease of the industrial wastewater discharge depending on the adjustment of the policy regarding the development of industries. Population effect exerts a little impact on the industrial wastewater discharge. Although the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is gradually decreasing as a whole, the pollution problem is still serious and unbalanced. Therefore, under the background of The Belt and Road Initiative strategy, ideas of developing the Yangtze River Economic Zone should be changed and the comprehensive environmental management of the Yangtze River Basin and ecosystem restoration should be enhanced.