中国大宗商品期货交割库空间布局及影响因素

运用核密度估计、空间自相关分析、地理探测器等方法,分析了中国大宗商品期货交割库的空间分布与聚类特征及其影响因素,结果表明：大宗商品期货交割库数量呈现不均匀分布态势,主要分布于东南沿海地区;大宗商品期货交割库核密度空间分布存在显著的差异,核密度高值分布区主要集中在东部沿海地区,而西北部地区则呈现极低密度状态;大宗商品期货交割库存在明显的空间集聚分布特征,主要在安徽、浙江、福建一带呈明显的集聚效应;大宗商品期货交割库空间分异的主要影响因素为区域综合运输能力和进出口总额。

Study of Spatial Distribution and Influence Elements of Bulk Commodity Delivery Warehouses

This essay explores the spatial distribution, clustering features and influence factors of bulk commodity delivery warehouses in China. In this study, we selected 579 bulk commodity delivery warehouses in China in 2015 as the research object.Then we mainly used the softwares ArcGIS and OpenGeoDA to figure out the spatial distribution characteristics. We input the datebase into the ArcGIS software, and using join method to count the amount of the bulk commodity delivery warehouses in 31 provincial areas of China. Firstly we find that the amount of bulk commodity delivery warehouses is uneven distributed. Delivery warehouses are mainly located in southeast coastal area. Then we successively using research methods as Kernel density estimation, exploratory spatial analysis and geographical detector and so on. We find that there exist outstanding differences in the Kernel density estimation results. South Jiangsu Province, Shanghai, North Zhejiang, Guangdong Province, North Hebei, Tianjin and part of Shandong Province show high value in Kernel density, while the value in the provinces as Guangxi, Hubei, Liaoning, Henan is low and that the provinces of northwest area is extremely low. Thirdly, we adopt the spatial clustering method to estimate the distribution of bulk commodity delivery warehouses. Then the figures confirmed that it does have the characteristic of spatial agglomeration. Delivery warehouses are remarkably agglomerated in Anhui province, Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province; Delivery warehouses distributed dispersedly in Hebei province, Shandong Province, Hubei Province, Jiangxi Province, Gansu Province and Sichuan Province. To find the most important factors which influence the distribution of the bulk commodity delivery warehouses, we choose geography detective model. We finally find that the Primary factors having impacts on spatial distribution of bulk commodity delivery warehouses are the level of regional economy and total volume of foreign trade; Agricultural output and GDP have less impact on the bulk commodity delivery warehouses distribution; especially, the distribution of resource has no influence on the distribution of the delivery warehouses. Based on the conclusions above, we recommended that our government should advance the planning skills and make the delivery warehouse development planning more reasonable. So that we can avoid extra construction and avoid the wasting of resources, then we may avoid a vicious competition. In addition, we should innovative customs clearance mode, accelerate the commodity of wharf and yard construction, strengthen the international logistics enterprises in the introduction and emphases Chinese logistics support. Then through the use of tax relief, land concessions, simplify approval and registration procedures. Anyhow, to find other ways to build a good investment environment and further optimize the layout of China's commodity futures delivery warehouse space.