对全球变化背景下长三角地区城镇化发展科学问题的思考

城镇化是中国现代化必由之路和实现经济可持续发展的长期国策。在全球变化背景下,如何科学评估并预测气候变化对城镇化发展的影响,阐释快速城镇化进程中应对气候变化的响应机制和适应模式,进而提出适应全球变化的城镇化可持续发展策略,是中国城镇化发展亟待解决的科学问题。长三角位于中国地势第三级阶梯的海岸带,海陆交互作用显著,是全球变化和人类活动剧烈相互作用的典型区域。长三角地区的城市化气候效应最强,水旱灾害、地面沉降、海面上升、极端气候事件对长三角城镇化发展的影响目前尚未作深入研究,气候变化和人类活动相互作用制约长三角的发展,长三角地区的城镇格局将如何应对气候变化和环境污染的影响?对该问题的回答是中国城镇化发展必须解决的难题,将直接决定中国城镇化可持续发展事业的成败。因此,开展长三角城镇化发展对全球变化的响应和适应对策研究,可为国家制定快速城镇化策略应对气候变化提供理论方法和科学决策依据。

On the problems of urbanization in the Yangtze River Deltaunder the background of global change

Urbanization is an inevitable way for China's modernization and the long-term national policy making of sustainable economic development. In the context of global change, some scientific issues, such as the influences of climate change on the development of urbanization, the response mechanism and adaptation model to the climate change in the rapidly urbanized region and the strategies for sustainable development of urbanization, have not been responded. Thus, this paper analyzes the scientific problems of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta, a rapidly urbanized region in China, under the background of the global change. Firstly, we briefly review the progress of the research on the response of urbanization to the global change, and then based on the relevant research results we aim to focus on some problems in the urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta under the background of global change. Furthermore, from the perspective of environmental archaeology we mainly discuss the evolution of the relationship between regional climate change and urbanization development in the Yangtze River Delta. We analyze the impacts of global warming, extreme climate and human activities on the development of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta based on the historical data of disasters and environmental problems. We think that, in the process of urbanization, the human and economic geography research should be strengthened. Finally, some priority research areas related to urbanization in this delta region are suggested.