地震高概率区域潜在重金属面源污染风险评价

地震的不易预见性易导致突发性环境污染，目前的相关研究多侧重于地灾发生后的调研评价，对高概率地震灾害区域潜在重金属面源污染风险预评价的研究尚有限，而预风险评价能为制定有效措施以降低灾害污染程度提供重要参考信息.为初探地震所致突发性重金属面源污染的风险预评估方法，基于地震峰值加速度因素结合建筑破损因素、潜在重金属污染物负荷值以四川省和重庆市为例构建潜在重金属面源污染及人口暴露风险评价模型.结果表明，研究区域的11个子流域受到潜在重金属面源污染风险，其中六价铬涉及子流域最多.不考虑人口暴露时，六价铬引发风险主要分布于研究区域东北角、中部及中南部，其他9种重金属污染物的潜在面源污染区主要分布于四川中南部.考虑人口暴露因素时，则六价铬引发风险主要分布于子流域W1和W2的东南部，其他重金属污染物则集中于子流域W4的北部.以四川省和重庆市为例初探性地建立了基于地震峰值加速度因素的地震引发潜在重金属污染及人口暴露预风险模型. 

Evalution on High Pobabilistic Seismic-Led Heavy Metal Non-Point Source Pollution

To minimize the unexpected seismic damage, it is significant to evaluate the potantial seismic risk in the high probabilisitic seismic hazard zones and take effective precautionary measures. This paper aims to evaluate the risk of heavy metal non-point source pollution caused by seismic-led industrial building collapse. It is based on the seismic hazard of 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, and the minimum value of the water quality standard in Sichuan, China. The method of Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) was used to compute the daily runoff depth, and to estimate the potential risk state of non-point source heavy metal pollution combined with the seismic damage index and population index. The results indicate: (1) eleven sub-basins are under the potential risk of seismic-led non-point source heavy metal pollution; (2) Compared to other heavy metal pollutants, more sub-basins are under the risk of Cr6+ pollution, and are mainly distributed in the northeast, central and south central of Sichuan province, whereas high risk subbasins of other heavy metal pollutants are most located in the south central areas of Sichuan province; (3) considering the population index, the high risk areas of Cr6+ pollution are mainly in the southeast of sub-basins W1 and W2, while those subjected to pollution of other heavy metals are mostly in the north of sub-basin W4.