城市常规公交空间演化过程研究——以广州市为例

以广州市为例,从公交覆盖度、线网密度和覆盖效益3个方面考察广州市常规公交的空间演变特征,结合趋势外推法,预测广州市未来公交发展态势,总结常规公交空间演变规律。研究发现：① 建国以来,广州市内的常规公交经历了由“低效公平”的低级均衡向出行效率变高、公平性变低的转变,随后又出现了非均衡状况缓解、公平性上升的状态;② 结合对未来发展的预测,发现它有由低级均衡向高级均衡状态演变的趋势。比较广州在城市发展中所处的阶段,可以推论中国类似于广州这样发达的超大城市,市内公交状况大多处于上述演变过程的后半期,而大多数城市则处在这一演变过程的前半期。

Spatial Evolution Features of Transit Bus: An Empirical Study of Guangzhou

The city bus provide convenient and fair transfer for citizens, how will the efficiency and fairness of city bus change with the expannding of the city? Developing public transport is essential for relieving urban traffic congestion and improving residential life quality. Bus (include transit bus and BRT) and urban rail Transit are two main models of public transportation in modern cities. Transit bus is widely used in Chinese cities with the characters of less investment, short building period and high accessibility. But current literatures have focused less on the spatial dynamic of transit bus, especially in the context of China’s rapid urban growth. Taking Guangzhou as a case study, this paper using three indicators (namely bus routes’ coverage degree, network density and coverage benefit) to describe the spatial evolution feature of transit bus. The paper, firstly collecting the history map of Guangzhou that includes 1954, 1967, 1975, 1987, 1995, 2000 and 2011, then using ArcGIS 9.3 to calculate the number, length and coverage area of Guangzhou transit bus, and then discussing the change trajectory of coverage degree, network density, area coverage benefit, population coverage benefit, lastly using projective forecasting to predict the development trends of given points in the future and to summarize the evolution law of transit bus. Research shows that 1) the transit efficiency of Guangzhou transit bus has experienced from a low degree to high degree, while the transit equity changes more complicated, firstly it falls from a low-level equilibrium and then begins rising in the late 1990s. 2) Using the linear prediction results, we find that Guangzhou transit bus will continue developing to a “high-efficient fair” stage. 3) By the evolutionary process of Guangzhou transit bus, it can be inferred that the transit bus obeys the law of changing from a “low-level balanced” stage to a “high-level balanced” stage, and it includes a transitional period in the middle of the process. It also indicates that mega-cities (eg. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) are experiencing the second stage which changing from “low-efficient fair” to “high-efficient fair”, while other medium and small cities may be in the first stage or the first half of the transitional phase.