渤海海峡跨海通道客货流量预测分析

在搜集整理1990-2015年26年的相关统计年鉴数据和实际调查数据的基础上,选取26项指标,以经济地理学和交通地理学原理为指导,以区域人口、经济、城镇化发展趋势为轴线,对未来渤海海峡跨海通道（Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel, BSCC）潜在的客、货、车流量进行预测。预测涉及省区、全国和世界（国际贸易）三个层面和高、中、低三种方案。由于预测的时间长（2017-2050年）,设定7个特征年份。本文借助EXCEL、SPSS、ArcGIS、MATLAB R2011b等技术平台,采用时间序列曲线估算法、建立客货流量指数模型、建立GRNN模型、交通可达性研究等多种方法有机结合进行预测;并在预测基础上进行以下分析：① 2020-2050年BSCC客货流量结构及发展趋势;② 2020-2050年BSCC客、货、车流量结构及发展趋势;③ 2020-2050年BSCC客货运输承载力;④ BSCC建设的可行性与不可行性;⑤ 未来BSCC建设的经济效益。预测结果表明：2050年以前建成BSCC,将会出现“特大工程特大亏损”的状况。在这种情况下,还将对BSCC的海运产生颠覆性影响,其损失将是巨大的。2040年以前完全没有必要建设BSCC,即使是2050年,其建设与否,也应该根据2050年前后社会经济发展的实际情况而定。

Predictive analysis of passenger and goods flow of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel

On the basis of collecting and sorting related statistical yearbook data and actual survey data of 26 years during 1990-2015, 26 indicators are selected. Guided by the economic geography and communication geography and with the axis of the regional population, economic deveoplment and urbanization trend, the prediction is made for passengers, goods and traffic flow of the Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel (hereafter referred to as "BSCC") for the future. The prediction covers province, nation and world (international trade) involved and gives high, middle and low solution respectively. Seven characteristic years are set due to a long predicting time (2017-2050). With the technology platform of EXCEL 2013, SPSS 22.0, ArcGIS 10.2, MATLABR2011b, etc., the prediction is made by organic combination of multiple methods, such as the time series curve estimation method, building passenger, goods and traffic flow exponential model, building GRNN model, traffic accessibility research method, etc., based on which the following analysis is made: (1) passengers, goods and traffic flow of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (2) passengers, goods and traffic flow structure of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (3) transportation capacity of both passengers and goods of the BSCC during 2020-2050; (4) feasibility and infeasibility of the BSCC construction; (5) future economic benefit of the BSCC construction. The prediction result shows that "catastrophic losses resulting from the extraordinarily large-scale project" will occur if the BSCC is to be built before 2050. In that case, it will also have devastating effects on sea transportation of the BSCC and cause huge losses. There is no need to build BSCC before 2040. Whether we build it in 2050 or not depends on actual social and economic development conditions before and after 2050.