中国县域小城镇就业岗位对人口集聚的影响研究——基于分位数回归的实证检验

利用中国县域建制镇数据,研究了中国小城镇常住人口与就业岗位的空间分布特征,采用分位数回归实证检验了就业岗位对小城镇人口集聚的影响。主要结论是：① 中国县域小城镇常住人口主要集中在胡焕庸线以东地区,尤其是哈大沿线、成渝地区、长江中下游和东南沿海省份。2009~2014年,中国小城镇常住人口密度普遍上升,中国小城镇常住人口比重在胡焕庸线两侧基本保持着稳定状态。② 中国县域小城镇非农就业岗位分布与常住人口分布大致吻合,且集聚程度更高。③ 中国县域小城镇就业岗位促进常住人口的集聚。随着县域小城镇人口规模的增加,就业岗位对小城镇常住人口集聚的影响逐渐降低,且第三产业就业岗位数量对人口集聚的影响将超过第二产业。④ 分区域看,县域小城镇就业岗位的人口促进作用对东部地区最为显著,中部次之,西部最低。

Impacts of Non-agricultural Employment Opportunities on Population Concentration in Small Towns in Chinese Counties: An Empirical Study Based on the Quantile Regression

The development of small towns and its strategy are the important part of China’s new urbanization plan. Using the data of designated towns in Chinese counties, the article analyzes the spatial distributions of population and non-agricultural employment of small towns, and tests the impacts of non-agricultural employment opportunities on the population concentration in small towns by utilizing the quantile regression method. Through the analysis, we find that: 1) The population of small towns mainly concentrate on the east side of the Hu’s line, especially in the Harbin-Dalian area, the Chengdu-Chongqing area, the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River area and some southeast provinces. From 2009 to 2014, the population density of small towns has increased in general, while the share of population of small towns on both sides of the Hu’s line has kept stable. 2) The distribution of non-agricultural employment of small towns coincides with the distribution of population, while the distribution of employment is more concentrated. 3) Non-agricultural employment of small towns promotes the agglomeration of population. With the population growth in small towns, the influence of non-agricultural employment opportunities has become lower and the impact of employment in the tertiary industry would surpass that of the secondary industry. 4) In terms of the regional disparity, the impact of non-agricultural employment opportunities on the population concentration in small towns is more significant in the eastern region, followed by the central region and the western region.