区域生态承载力预警评估方法及案例研究

本文针对国家资源环境承载能力监测预警评估中生态承载力评估的需求,探讨了生态承载力及预警的定义与内涵,从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,并以京津冀地区为例开展了案例研究。主要结论为：生态承载力是指生态系统提供服务功能、预防生态问题、保障区域生态安全的能力。生态承载力预警评估的实质是评估人类活动是否及在多大程度上影响生态系统在水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙等主要服务功能的提供,是否产生了生态环境问题,是否影响到区域的生态安全。其评价流程主要包括：区域生态承载力评价指标选取及评价方法和阈值的确定、生态承载力预警状况及变化趋势分析、成因解析等内容。本文提出的生态承载力预警评价的方法及案例,可为全国及区域生态承载力的评估提供基础。

Evaluation methods and case study of regional ecological carrying capacity for early-warning

Based on the national needs for resources and environment carrying capacity monitoring and early-warning, this article addresses the definition of ecological carrying capacity and its evaluation method for early-warning. A case study was carried out for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The article concludes that ecological carrying capacity refers to the ability of ecosystems in providing ecosystem services, preventing ecological problems, and ensuring ecological security. Ecological carrying capacity evaluation for early-warning is to examine the extent of human disturbances that affect ecosystem services supply with regard to water retention, soil retention, sandstorm prevention; produce ecological problems; and affect regional and national ecological security. The main procedures involve indicator and evaluation method selection, threshold identification, status and trend analysis of ecological carrying capacity with reference to early-warning threshold, and cause analysis. The method and case study of ecological carrying capacity evaluation for early-warning proposed in this study can serve as a basis for regional and national assessment.