气候变化背景下江苏河蟹养殖高温热害风险评估

利用江苏省及周边共85个气象站观测资料,筛选出夏季高温强度、持续时间、降水量和日照时数作为高温热害的关键气象因子,构建高温热害综合指数。在此基础上,利用高温热害发生频率和河蟹因灾死亡率加权建立风险评估模型,将河蟹高温热害风险划分为三个等级,结合地形和土壤的适宜性,最终得出江苏河蟹高温热害风险区划图。结果发现,河蟹高温热害的高风险区位于以高淳为中心的江苏西南部,沿淮和淮北东部沿海地区风险值最低,淮北西部—沿江东部的风险值介于二者之间。年代际高风险区面积有逐渐扩大趋势,1991年以来已外扩到沿江和苏南大部分地区,达到历史极值。河蟹高温热害风险增大,需加强防范。

Risk assessment and regionalization of high temperature damage in river crab-farming under climate change scenarios

Using observational data from 85 meteorological stations in Jiangsu and its surrounding areas from 1961 to 2019, an aggregated evaluation index was built by weighting the summer high temperature intensity, duration, precipitation, and sunshine hours. On this basis, a risk assessment model was established by using the frequency of high temperature heat damage and the weighted mortality of river crabs due to disasters. In the model, the risk of high temperature heat damage was divided into three grades. Combined with the suitability of topography and soil, the risk zoning map of high temperature heat damage of river crabs in Jiangsu was finally obtained. The results showed that the high-risk area of high temperature and heat damage is located in the southwestern Jiangsu with Gaochun as the center, and the coastal area along the Huai River and the eastern part of Huaibei have the lowest risk. The risk of the area between the western part and the eastern part of f Huaibei is somewhere in between. The decadal analysis shows that the area of high risk has a gradual expansion trend. Since 1991, it has expanded to most areas along the Yangtze River and southern Jiangsu, reaching the historical extreme. The risk of high temperature and heat damage to river crabs is increasing, and prevention needs to be strengthened.