工程岩爆灾害判别的RBF-AR耦合模型

岩爆是深部高地应力区地下岩体工程中的主要工程地质灾害之一，其发生及烈度预测是一个复杂的不确定系统问题。为了有效预测和判别深部工程岩爆灾害，在总体考虑岩爆各影响因素的基础上，选取地下工程中岩体完整性指数、岩石单轴抗压强度、岩石单轴抗拉强度、围岩最大切向应力、围岩抗压强度与其抗拉强度的比值、围岩切向应力与围岩抗压强度比值、弹性能量指数、岩爆倾向性指数作为岩爆预测的评判指标，提出了一种基于非线性参数优化的RBF-AR岩爆预测模型。在终南山隧道竖井岩爆判别中，利用RBF-AR法进行计算，计算结果与实际情况完全一致，表明该模型在岩爆预测中的可行性和有效性。

Rock Burst Prediction in Deep Shaft Based on RBF-AR Model

Rock burst is one of the main engineering geological hazards of underground rock engineering in deep zone with high ground stresses. The prediction of rock burst intensity is a complex systematic problem of uncertainty. In order to predict the occurrence of rock burst in tunnel engineering, based on consideration of all rock burst factors, selecting several factors as the judging indexes of rock burst such as the integrity index of the rock mass, uniaxial compressive strength of surrounding rock, rock uniaxial tensile strength of rock, maximal tangential stress of rock, the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength and uniaxial tensile strength of rock, the ratio of surrounding maximal tangential stress and uniaxial compressive strength of rock, elasticity energy index and rock burst tendency index, a nonlinear parameter optimization model for rock burst predicting based on RBF-AR was put forward. The RBF-AR model has applied in rock burst predicting calculation of Zhongnanshan tunnel ventilation shaft and the result is very close to the actual situation. It indicates that the model is feasible and effective for rock burst prediction.