Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach |
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Authors: | S Molina C D Lindholm |
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Institution: | (1) Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Alicante, Campus S. Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03690 Alicante, Spain;(2) NORSAR/ICG, P.O. Box 53, 2027 Kjeller, Norway |
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Abstract: | Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based
on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of
such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to
this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as
much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly
support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations
to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios. |
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Keywords: | Seismic risk Vulnerability Damage scenarios Uncertainties Capacity spectrum method |
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