大尺度流域水污染防治能力综合评估及动力因子分析——以淮河流域为例

水污染是影响公众健康和经济可持续发展的突出问题之一。随着城镇化、工业化和农业化快速发展,流域水环境污染防治压力日趋严峻。以淮河流域为研究对象,在遵循大尺度流域水污染内在机理的基础上,采用熵值法、GIS空间分析法和回归模型等技术方法,通过流域水污染控制处理、监测预警、监督管理、防治投入等四个方面的能力,对流域35个城市水污染防治能力进行了综合评估,并对流域水污染防治的动力因子进行探讨。结果表明:①流域水污染防治力空间差异显著,东部平原地区污染防治能力较高,西部山区以及各子流域大部分地区防控能力较低,淮河干流及干流以南的中游区域防治能力中等偏低。②污染防治驱动力多元回归分析表明,流域内源动力,即公众教育、区域经济发展水平等因子是流域水污染防治的根本驱动力;舆论监督、外商投资等外源动力是区域水污染治理关键动力。

Comprehensive evaluation and driving factors analysis of water pollution prevention capability on a large-scale basin: Taking Huaihe River Basin as example

Water pollution is one of the prominent problems that affect public health and sustainable economic development.And water pollution prevention pressure of the river basin is becoming increasingly serious with the rapid development of urbanization,industrialization and agriculturalization.Taking Huaihe River Basin as the research object and based on the following internal mechanism of large-scale basin water pollution,this paper carries out the comprehensive evaluation of basin water pollution prevention capability for 35 cities in four aspects,namely,control and treatment,monitoring and warning,supervision and management, prevention and input capability of the river basin.It also explores the driving factors of water pollution prevention with the help of entropy method,GIS spatial analysis and regression model method.The results are shown as follows.(1)Spatial difference of water pollution prevention capability is prominent in the Huaihe River Basin while the pollution prevention ability is higher in the eastern plain area,lower in most parts of the western mountainous area and each of its sub-basins and generally medium to low in main streams and middle reaches to the south of the trunk river.(2)Multiple regression analysis of pollution prevention driving force indicates that the basin endogenous powers,including public education,regional economic development level,play a vital role in water pollution prevention.Exogenous motivation including supervision by public opinion and foreign investment is the key power of regional water pollution prevention.