基于混沌理论的煤矿井筒地表沉降分析及预测

通过对主井及其附近两个稳定点进行了变形监测,利用混沌理论对两个时间序列进行了混沌特征的分析,发现两个时间序列的关联维数分别为1.3282和1.4587,嵌入维数都为3,最大Lyapunov指数分别为λ=0.0833和λ=0.0745。说明这两个监测点的时间序列具有混沌的特征,存在混沌现象。采用混沌一阶局域法进行预测时,采用不同时间间隔得到预测结果有较大差异。其中,采用最小时间间隔得到预测结果最差,而采用平均时间间隔得到的预报精度等级和预报准确率均为最优。

Analysis of Chaotic Properties and Prediction of Ground Surface Deformation for Coal Mine Shaft

The deformation caused by grouting around mine shaft is monitored with a reasonable scheme and the monitoring data are analyzed by chaos theory to judge the chaos characters.The analysis of chaos shows that the correlation dimention are 1.3282and 1.4587,the embedding dimention are all 3,and the biggest Lyapunov index are all bigger than zero for the time series of two monitoring points.So the time series of two points are chaos and can be predicted by theory of choas.It is found that the forecasting precision is infected by the interval of time series.The precision of time series model whose interval is 10day is best while initial time series is better,the interval of 7day is worst.