内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化仿真模型及应用

在西部大开发战略实施过程当中,我国内陆河流域由于用水结构与产业结构严重错位,水资源短缺问题日益严峻。传统的以满足水资源供需平衡为目标的水资源优化配置模式,已解决不了水资源短缺问题。因此,在内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化理论与机制分析的基础之上,以系统动力学模型为主模型,以投入产出模型、多目标决策模型、灰色系统模型、多元统计回归分析法等为辅助模型,通过主模型与辅助模型对接,建立了内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化仿真模型。该模型把水资源总量作为“总阀门”,并以产业结构调整为切入点,通过产业结构调整来优化生产用水结构,进而优化“三生”用水结构,通过“三生”用水结构的优化来确保用水总量不超过水资源承载力,以此反复循环,最终实现流域用水结构与产业结构的双向优化。以我国典型的内陆河流域——黑河(干流)流域为例,对该模型进行了应用与分析。结果表明,该模型能够较好地协调流域上中下游之间、生态生产生活系统之间、用水结构产业结构系统之间的矛盾,可以为内陆河流域水资源的持续利用提供新的方法和思路。

Simulation Model and Application on Mutual Optimization of Water Utilization Structure and Industrial Structure in Inland River Basins

During the great development of west China,water utilization structure and industrial structure are both irrational in inland river basins.And they do not fit in with each other.Shortage of water resources is serious.However,traditional water resources optimization focused on water resources but neglected industrial structure.It cannot resolve the present problems.Based on the analysis of interaction mechanism between water utilization structure and industrial structure,simulation model on mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in inland river basins is constructed.This model takes System Dynamic Model as the major model,and Input-Output Model,Multiple Targets Decision Model,Grey System Model,Multiple Regression Analysis Method as the assistant models.Restricted by the total quantity of water resources,adjustment of industrial structure is taken as the start.By adjustment of industrial structure,water utilization structure for production is optimized,so is water utilization structure.After optimization of water utilization structure,the total quantity of water utilization should not exceed the carrying capacity of water resources.If it does,industrial structure should be adjusted until it does not.Taking the Heihe River Basin(mainstream),which is one of the largest inland river basins in China,as a case,results show that this model can harmonize the relationship between the upper,middle and lower reaches of the whole river basin.It also can realize the sustainable development of the ecology-production-living system and the water utilization structure-industrial structure system.This model supplies a new thought and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in inland river basins.