低碳经济政策对区域发展格局演进的影响——基于动态多区域CGE模型的模拟分析

利用中国动态多区域可计算一般均衡(CGE) 模型，模拟了低碳经济时代实施碳税政策对中国区域发展格局演进的影响。模拟结果显示，如果各地区实施同一碳税政策，对区域经济的影响存在着区域差异，能源富集地区尤其是欠发达地区的经济损失较大，对发达地区则产生正面的影响，因而将扩大区域经济差异。如果实施差别碳税，对能源富集地区和欠发达地区的影响有所减轻，有利于缩小区域经济差异。针对不同区域制定差异化的低碳经济发展政策，有利于兼顾公平和效率，使中国走上低碳发展和区域经济协调的双赢之路。

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on Regional Development in China:A Dynamic Simulation Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model

Low-carbon economy has become a worldwide trend. This paper applies a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct research into the impacts of carbon tax policy on regional economic development in China based on a China Interregional Input-Output Table 2002. Simulation results show that different regions endure different impacts when a uniform carbon tax policy is implemented. It exerts negative influences on less developed regions and positive economic influences on coastal areas, which will widen regional economic disparity. Regional differentiated carbon tax policies may alleviate differences of impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on regional economy and then help to marrow regional economic gap. Therefore, regional differentiated carbon tax policies, from the viewpoint of efficiency and equality, may be a win-win choice for developing low-carbon economy and promoting harmonious development of regional economy in China.