海岸带土地发展潜力评价——以杭州湾南岸为例

土地潜力评价是编制土地利用规划的前提,把握土地的潜在经济效能是城镇化、工业化快速推进背景下土地资源合理配置的重要命题。本文甄选自然条件、生态敏感性、经济发展和空间结构指标建立了土地发展潜力评价体系,分别采用模糊综合评价法与网络层次分析法赋权指标体系与计算权重,测度发展潜力值并划分了杭州湾南岸余姚、慈溪和镇海的海岸带土地发展潜力区。结果显示:(1)低发展潜力区面积为237.14 km²,占比为17.73%;中发展潜力区面积为323.08 km²,占比为24.15%;高发展潜力区面积为473.34 km²,占比为35.38%;极高发展潜力区面积为304.27 km²,比例为22.74%。(2)按照地类的级别面积分析,交通运输用地和自然保留地面积在极高潜力区中达到峰值,呈由高向低等级面积递减态势;耕地、其他农用地、城乡建设用地和其他建设用地在高潜力区中占比最大,且基本布局于极高、高潜力区;园地、河流水面、水利建设用地集中于中潜力区,而沿海滩涂与林地基本分布于低、中潜力区。(3)余姚、慈溪和镇海海岸带土地发展潜力分区呈现不同特点,余姚属于待提升型,慈溪为均衡发展型,镇海是高质发展潜力型。

Land development potential assessment in coastal zone: A case study on the southern bank of Hangzhou Bay

Development potential assessment of land resource plays foundation for land use planning. Therefore, finding out the land potentiality of economic production capacity is a key proposition of allotting land resource in the background of urbanization and industrialization. In this study, the index system was established based on natural condition, ecological sensitivity, economic development and spatial structure, moreover, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic network process method were adopted respectively to value each index and weight. This study figured out potential value by map algebra in ArcGIS and divided study area into four potential districts with natural break method. The conclusions show that: (1) low potential district has the area of 237.14 km², taking the percentage of 17.73%; medium potential district has the area of 323.08 km², taking the percentage of 24.15%; high potential district has the area of 473.34 km², taking the percentage of 35.38% and extreme high potential district has the area of 304.27 km², taking the percentage of 22.74% respectively. (2) According to the analysis of land use types in different land potential districts, transport land and natural reserved land area reach the peak in extreme high potential district and decrease from the extreme high potential district to the low potential district; cropland, rural-urban construction land, other agricultural land and other construction land have the biggest ratio in the high potential district and mostly distribute in the extreme high or the high potential district; garden plot, water surface and water conservancy land are basically distribute in the medium potential district, while tidal flat and woodland distribute in the medium and low potential district.(3) Land development potential in coastal zone of these cities have different characteristics, which are specified as: the potential district in Yuyao county belongs to further-promotion type, the potential district in Cixi county belongs to balance development type and the potential district in Zhenhai belongs to high potential quality type.