黄河三峡库区滑坡诱发的涌浪预测方法

黄河三峡库区的涌浪灾害风险不容忽视,经验公式是宜优先考虑的涌浪快捷评价方法.对黄河三峡焦家崖头2012年2月7日的黄土滑坡和涌浪进行调查,分析了黄土滑坡及涌浪的特征.采用9种涌浪经典计算公式,计算了涌浪的初始浪高、对岸爬高等特征参数.与调查结果对比表明,采用美国土木工程师协会推荐法、水科院算法、Huber and Hager模型和潘家铮算法获取的焦家崖头黄土滑坡诱发的涌浪特征参数均接近实际,其确定的校正系数分别为2.14、1.92、0.6和0.66,对比考虑安全性和经济性后推荐采用潘家铮算法预测黄河三峡的涌浪.

Research on prediction methods of tsunamis induced by landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yellow River

The risks of tsunamis in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yellow River cannot be overlooked. Empirical equations are efficient evaluation methods which should be considered as a priority. Field survey was carried out on the loess landslide and tsunami which occurred in Jiaojiayatou in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yellow River on February 7th, 2012. Then features of the loess landslide and tsunami were analyzed. Nine classical equations for landslide-triggered tsunamis were adopted to calculate characteristic parameters of the tsunami, including initial surge height and run-up height on the opposite bank. Compared with field survey results, characteristic parameters of the tsunami derived by empirical equations, including ASCE recommended method, method of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Huber and Hager model and Panjiazheng method, are close to those of the real model. The verification coefficients are 2.14, 1.92, 0.6 and 0.66 respectively. After comprehensive comparisons of safety and economical efficiency, Panjiazheng method is recommended to predict similar hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yellow River.