一种新型的适应性观测资料应用对台风预报的影响试验研究

近年来，气象界提出了一个“适应性（或目标）观测（adaptive or targeting observation）”的新概念，它是根据数值预报的敏感区在现有的、固定的气象观测网基础上增加的、有目标的特别观测。下投式探空仪（Dropsonde）是适应性观测的重要观测仪器。利用我国新一代数值预报系统GRAPES，初步研究了应用热带气旋适应性观测的下投式探空仪探测资料对台风（2003年杜鹃台风）预报的影响，并进行了敏感性试验。结果表明，数值天气预报中增加下投式探空仪观测资料之后，对台风的移动路径、台风中心位置和强度，以及其它要素的预报都有所改善；敏感性试验还指出，下投式探空仪观测资料的误差结构设置对台风的预报也有明显的影响，该类观测资料在修正背景场的过程中权重并不是越高越好

AN IMPACT STUDY OF A NEW TYPE OF DATA OF ADAPTIVE OR TARGETING OBSERVATION ON TYPHOON FORECAST

There was a new concept of 'adaptive or targeting observation' in recent years,which is additional and targeting observation based on existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on the impacted region.Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targeting observation.In this paper,GRAPES,the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China has been used.The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan(in 2003) forecast in experiments with Dropsonde have been studied and experiments on modify the background.sensitivity have also been done.It was found that the forecasts of the elements have been improved obviously with the use of Dropsonde,such as the path,the center location,and the intensity of typhoon.It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obvious impacts on the forecast for typhoons.It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data of Dropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.