The probability of occurrence of largest earthquqkes in the European area — Part II

Summary The previous investigation of the probability of occurrence of largest earthquakes in the European area continued by applying the Gumbel theory of largest values to three periods 1901–1930, 1901–1955 and 1901–1967, respectively. The values of magnitudes which will be exceeded with the probabilityP=1%, 2% and 10% were determined from the lines fitting the distributions of magnitudes and corresponding probabilities for all three periods. It was assumed that the relationship between the differences M _P% ^k](67)=M _k,P%–M ₆₇,P% (k=30, 55, 67) and the observation period follow the hyperbolic law. This tendency was used for the estimation of the probability line corresponding to an infinite observation period.Presented at The Sixth UMC Symposium on Geophysical Theory and Computers in Copenhagen in 1969.