1885~2000年长江中下游梅雨特征量的统计分析

该文分析了1885~2000年长江中下游梅雨特征量的基本统计特征及其相互关系，在此基础上研究了梅雨较长时间尺度的变化特征。结果发现：①梅雨量的大小与梅雨期的长短和出梅日期的早晚为显著的正相关；②梅雨的主要周期为3 a、6 a和8 a，它们分别与低纬100 hPa高度场、热带系统以及全球陆地温度的变化有关；③控制入梅、出梅和梅雨期6 a左右周期的气候因素是相同的，而3 a左右的周期可能受到不同气候因素的影响；④长江中下游梅雨在近116年期间，经历了6个不同的气候阶段。

CLIMATIC VARIATION OF MEIYU IN THE MIDDLE-LOWER REACHES OF CHANGJIANG RIVER DURING 1885-2000

The decadal scale variation characteristics of the Meiyu (plum rains) time series in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River during 1885—2000 were investigated by using statistical technique. Including maximum entropy spectrum, cross spectrum and abrupt change analysis etc. It is found that: ①There exist a significant positive correlation between the Meiyu rainfall and Meiyu duration and the ending date of Meiyu. ② The main periodic length of Meiyu series are three years, six years and eight years, which are related to the 100 hPa geopotential height over the low latitude, tropical systems and the variation of global land temperature respectively. ③ The 6-year period of the Meiyu duration, onset date and ending date of Meiyu are controlled by the same climatic factors, but the 3-year period of the Meiyu probably are influenced by the different climatic factors. ④ Six different climate phases are identified in the Meiyu time series for recent 116 years (1885—2000).