省域差异的警戒水平及调控研究──以山东省为例

差异与均衡是区域发展中必须兼顾的两个方面,差异是经济增长的内在动力,也是实现均衡的手段和途径。本文通过省域差异变化与增长速度联动分析,结合山东省案例,表明二者间存在函数关系,可利用拟合模型揭示其相互作用、动态变化的规律,并在适度差异的基础上建立差异警戒水平,作为实施省域差异调控的依据。当差异较小则通过倾斜发展以提高增长速度,当差异逼近或越过警戒水平则控制和缩小差异以保持增长势头,使省域差异合理化。

A STUDY ON WARNING LEVEL AND REGULATION OF DISCREPANCY IN PROVINCIAL REGION──AN ILLUSTRAION WITH SHANDONG PROVINCE

Discrepancy and balance are two developmental goals which must be taken into account. The discrepancy is the inner motive force of economic growth, and also is the way to balanced development. By analysing the alteration of provincial discrepancy combined with the increasing speed, this paper indicates that there is a relation between them. During the earlier stage of provincial discrepant process. the total economic amount is limited. Only the superior area can be invested concentratively so that the speed increases quickly, which enlarges the provincial discrepancy. During the later stage, discrepancy surpasses the provincial bearable capability and turns to be an obstacle.The speed drops down and discrepant controlling becomes the most important task. so only proper discrepancy can coordinate the contradiction between them.After establishing a functional relation, the interaction and the dynamic changing trends were revealed through an approachable model, directed by the appropriate discrepancy, a warning level can be set up to make a policy for discrepant adjustment. An example proved the method. When shandong'S maximal discrepancy of GDP per capita arrived at $ 7028. 6. it got into the warning state and gained the maximal speed of 19. 05% per year. If discrepancy is small. the concentrative developmental policy should be adopted to pick up the speed. When it is getting large and approaching the warning level, discrepant controlling should be adopted to rationalize it.