An examination of simulated regional climate change using an adjoint method

The adjoint of a one-layer model of tropospheric-average temperature advection is used to examine a general circulation model (GCM) doubled CO₂ scenario experiment locally over Europe. The adjoint technique enables a regional temperature anomaly to be accounted for in terms of horizontal advection and thermodynamic sources and sinks, both local and remote. Although the time-averaged regional signal in tropospheric-average temperature over Central Europe in the doubled CO₂ GCM experiment is very small ( 0.1 K) once the Northern Hemispheric mean (+2.2 K) has been subtracted, there is a large variability on decadal time scales, and it is toward one such event that we direct our attention. It is found that a 10-January-mean regional anomaly (2×CO₂-Control) of –1.7 K (with respect to hemispheric average) is primarily accounted for by changes in the advecting winds. The main thermodynamic forcing anomalies during January are situated over Europe itself and upstream over the Atlantic, but these are found to have a secondary direct effect, although their indirect effect via changes in the flow pattern remains to be determined.