东北半干旱地区流域分布式水文模拟——以洮儿河流域为例

以东北半干旱地区典型流域-洮儿河流域为研究对象，应用SWAT模型对流域水文过程进行了模拟研究；选择流域上游子流域和中下游子流域分别进行参数敏感性分析，识别出影响模拟结果的敏感参数，研究发现部分参数敏感性存在空间变异性，分析主要原因在于气候和下垫面的空间异质性导致了流域上下游产流模式存在差异。采用1988-1997年水文气象数据进行模型率定和验证，结果表明：干流水文站月流量过程率定期Nash-Sutcliffe 效率系数平均值为0.78，验证期为0.72，相关系数都达到0.86以上，水量误差大多在20%以内，对日过程的模拟也有较高的精度；枯水年模拟结果较差，主要是因为流域降水站数量不够，难以反映降水的时空分布。对于水文、气象等资料相对缺乏的东北半干旱地区，SWAT模型的模拟结果总体令人满意，可以应用于与流域径流相关的各种模拟分析，研究成果对进一步加强洮儿河流域水资源综合管理提供了依据和手段。

Distributed Hydrological Modeling in Semi-Arid Region in Northeast China:A Case Study in the Taoer River Basin

This study takes Taoer River basin, a typical basin in semi-arid region of Northeast China, as study area, and simulates its hydrological process by the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Parameter sensitivity analysis is carried out on the upper sub-basin and middle-lower sub-basin to identify the sensitive parameters affecting stream flow. Results show spatial heterogeneity of several parameters’ sensitivities, and the reason is the difference of runoff generating mode caused by spatial heterogeneities of climate and underlying surface. Calibration and verification of hydrological model are carried out by daily hydrological and meteorological data from 1988 to 1997, and the results show that average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (EC) of monthly runoff simulation at main stream gauging stations is 0.78 for calibration period and 0.72 for verification period, relative coefficient is more than 0.86, relative error of water budget is within 20%, and daily runoff simulation is also fairly good; while the simulation is not satisfied for dry period due to the inadequacy of precipitation gauging station to capture spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. These researches show the applicability of SWAT model in modeling runoff generation and relative hydrological process in semi-arid region in Northeast China with scarce-data, and meanwhile it provides foundation and tool for improving further study in water resources integrated management of Taoer River basin.