论找矿勘查的风险性和降低风险的预测性勘查战略

找矿勘查的高风险性表现在找到可赢利矿床的成功率低和找矿发现的成本越来越高,这不仅影响了矿业经济的发展,也影响了公众对地球科学的认识。根据国际找矿勘查的一些统计资料和实例分析了造成找矿勘查高风险性的原因,提出降低风险的预测性勘查战略。区域地质背景、成矿作用的复杂性和勘查者所具有的知识、思维能力、技术手段的局限性等客观因素使找矿勘查的风险不可避免,但不少找矿勘查的失败是由勘查者在资料使用、观察、思维等方面的主观失误造成的。勘查者可以通过增加尝试的次数来获取成功,更可取的是通过提高矿床预测的准确度,以预测性勘查促找矿发现,进而降低找矿勘查的风险。

Risk of mineral exploration and predictive exploration strategy for reducing the risk.

The high risk of mineral exploration lies in the low success rate of discovering profitable mineral deposits and high discovery cost,which not only influences the development of the mineral industry but also the public recognition of the geosciences.In this paper,the causes responsible for the high risk of mineral exploration are analyzed based on the statistical data of international mineral exploration and some examples,and in addition,the predictive exploration strategy for reducing the risk is presented.Because of such objective factors as the complexity of regional geological setting and ore-forming processes and explorationists' limitations in knowledge,capability of thinking and technology and means,the exploration risk is unavoidable.However,many exploration failures are ascribed to subjective mistakes of explorationists,such as use of false information and incorrect observations and thinking.Success in discovery of profitable deposits can be achieved by increasing the number of trials,but the more advisable way of reducing the risk is to try to find mineral deposits by raising the prediction creditability and then reduce the risk of mineral exploration.